"Talking about numbers now? It makes no sense. " He thinks Massimo Bugani, adviser to the 5 Star Movement in the City to Bologna to turn off the alarm. "Every time before the election is always the same story. We speak squares and only comment on the results. Now this is not a clash between us and the Democratic Party, but between us and the world of information. " Time of campaigning along the Via Emilia, and like any self-respecting eve of the war begins polls. The region, including interviews commissioned by the party and suggestions, it seems once again to be the stronghold of the Democratic Party. The photograph is that of Delos center, institute founded in 2005 and directed by researchers Michael Rocchetta and Alfonso Brunetti. Responsible for the analysis of the data is the sociologist Fausto Anderlini. Former Communist Party and chairman of the Medec, polling metropolitan center, he worked for the Province of Bologna. Defined by the Corriere della Sera "sociologist trusted Cofferati" in 2005 was the author of the survey and photographed the fears of Bologna and in fact Sdogati the right-wing policies of the junta to democracy. The data presented in the last days speak of an electorate Bolognese "pro-European" with a high rate of absenteeism (39%), a former PDL team in free fall (from 11 5 to 6.4%) and the 5 Star Movement that would drop from 18 to 9% of previous policies or that, considering only those who actually go to the polls would increase from 23.2 to 15.4%. "It 'a fact that I had already recorded," says Anderlini, "for example, with the participation of many voters with past 5 Stars primary Pd (Renzi voted for or Civati), but is now back with insistence. Surely there are local dynamics that strongly influence. I do not know if this will be a change of trend that will have an effect on the national team. "
But they are not only the data on Bologna to discuss. In Reggio Emilia, some local newspapers (Journal of Reggio and Resto del Carlino) sent out surveys that were commissioned by the Democratic Party to the research firm Svg. In those results we see a Democratic Party victory without going through the balloting: The Old Luca mayoral candidate would be 52%, the third party Movement 5 Stars 13% and the candidate of the center to 20 percent. A revelation condemned by grillini: "We have filed a complaint," announced Norbert Vaccari, running for M5S, "Authority for the Communications, at Corecom, the Guardia di Finanza about the polls appeared which are definitely illegal, and we believe also false, because in our opinion does not in any way correspond to the facts. " In Modena, the same survey of the Democratic Party, would give the commissioner Muzzarelli to over 40 per cent and 16 per cent grillini.
Also weighing on the table of 5 stars could be expulsion (a lot of games right from Bologna), leader of the discontent with the mayor of Parma and Federico Pizzarotti a group of dissidents who always asks the voice. Some of them have complained of not being able to participate in the last election on the net, others have formed a new political party called "One worth much," to try to make network throughout Italy. The photograph of Delos Searches does not seem to worry too much the Bologna group. In front of the survey data, the parent company in town, Massimo Bugani, has a kind of deja vu. "Even a year ago, a month before the policy, they asked me an 'opinion on a survey that gave us 11%, with attached opinion of John Favia who was already talking about a debacle. Then instead we got 25%. So I think that comment on these numbers now makes no sense. It 's like talking about anything. " In Bologna and surroundings Bugani is considered a benchmark for cricket and Casaleggio. Him know that you can trust. Councillor Bologna, in fact, has never adhered to the frond of internal dissidents, that Emilia had her homeland. If you are registered here the first electoral successes, those who have allowed the 5-star debut in the palaces in the garb (hitherto unpublished) of regional councilors and municipal always here has found fertile ground wing critics, and there have been the first expulsions, from that of the director Ferrara Valentino Tavolazzi.
A dissent but never found the bank in Bugani. Indeed, the elected Commune was involved in clashes, sometimes fierce, both with Federica Salsi, ended in disgrace and expelled after an appearance at BallarÃ², both with former dolphin Grillo, John Favia, hunted for a Fuorionda where he painted Casaleggio as a master father of the Movement. "Recently we had a merciless attack by people who were stuck in the movement with the intent to destroy Grillo. But we withstood impact and we are now very strong and happy in the past. Of course, these events could affect the consensus, because these people have been echoed by the media as huge as unexplained. " For now prefers not to overreach in predictions. Better talk to the results of the polls on the table. "I have no idea what will happen, I'm curious. If we look at the squares and affection I would say that we are above 30%, but if you look at the lies the media say about us I think we can also take 10%. By now it is no longer even a clash between us and the Democratic Party, but between us and the world of information. Of course, this result will be important to understand just how much we managed to get our message across. "
In Bologna, the survey Delos has considered 700 cases (370 in the municipality of Bologna and 330 in the province). Were contacted by residents in Italy with more than seventeen years of telephone interviews dating back to April 2014. 71% of respondents said that the most important problems of the country are those related to employment and unemployment. In second place (with 25.5%) on the other hand are safety and crime. 0.1 per cent of respondents said that among the hot topics is "the relationship with Europe." Confidence in government Renzi is given to 61.9%. On the other hand, do not get work agenda of the Prime Minister: hostile would be the 45% of voters Pd.
On Europe, the Bologna photographed by Delos seem to have clear ideas. Only 30 per cent hopes an exit from the euro, 81, 2 percent of voters should put an end to policies of fiscal compact, but for 84, 3 per cent, the EU remains an indispensable project. A surprise are mainly guidelines to vote. 37.6% of respondents state that the Democratic Party will vote (compared to 33 of the general election of 2013), 9.4 percent for the 5 Star Movement (a difference of 18.2 in 2013), the abstention rate would still be at 39 percent. A number probably destined to decline with the approach of elections in May. Fall for Forza Italy, which would rise from 11 5 to 6.4% and for Ncd, Choice and Civic UDC, swooping from 7.5 to 1.9%. If we consider instead the actual voters, the Democratic Party touches 61.6%, according to the 5-Star Party with 15.4 percent, Italy 10.5 Force.
"What we're seeing," said Fausto Anderlini, "is a real boom trustee of the government Renzi. Like Bolognese 62 out of 100. Digit twice what he always picked Letta. The Democratic Party is the only party to attract votes from abstainers, while all give votes. From 5 Star Movement. Not to mention that grillini remain the second largest party. Breakdown of the PDL and the center of the area. Faced with a list Tsipras in Bologna struggling to take off. " One of the most interesting data according to Andreoli, remains one of the 5 Star Movement: "Here in Bologna seem to be in sharp contrast to the national level. You probably are affecting local variables and we are not able to determine whether these will also apply to other areas. It 'true that everything here is first born. And it is also true that inside there was a strong component of the left. Now we register a change of trend that could occur here than anywhere else before. " A trend that Anderlini but says he can see a few months ago: "I have carried out a survey after the primaries. According to our data shows that 12 percent of voters turned out to vote were the 5 Star Movement. And those who voted for or Renzi or Civati. "
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